Donetsk, Sep 10 - DAN. Ukraine’s new attempt to invade the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics is doomed to failure, but it might also lead to the official recognition of the DPR and LPR by Russia,” Director of the Centre for Current Politics Alexey Chesnakov told Russia’s Itar-Tass news agency.
“If it happens, the casualty toll will be much higher than in the Ukrainian war of 2014. But the Croatian-style solution won’t work. As in 2014, Ukraine will surely be compelled to peace. And again, they’ll thrust the Minsk Agreements under its nose which will be a good thing for Kiev, because it might come to Russia’s recognising the DPR and LPR as was the case with South Ossetia and Abkhazia after Saakashvili’s reckless move,” the expert said.
He believes that Kiev’ is very likely to attempt to unleash large-scale fighting in Donbass at present.
“I hope I’m wrong, but somehow I’m sure that at some point, Kiev might go for massive invasion into the militia-controlled territory. Firstly, its overseas sponsors are actively inciting Ukraine towards such actions. Secondly, there are enough crazy persons in Ukraine,” Chesnakov said.
The supporters of launching aggression keep the Croatia example as reference; in the course of the Balkans conflict it used force to subdue the mutinous Serb areas. “In the course of those events, Croatians killed not only Serbs but also UN contingent servicemen,” the political scientist said.
Reports said in early September that Ukrainian forces were preparing a large-scale offensive against DPR positions on the southern (Mariupol) axis. Ukraine reportedly massed up more than 12,000 troops for the attack. According to the latest intelligence reports, the Ukrainian army has been deploying heavy weapons on the contact line in violation of the Minsk peace accords.*jk